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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T12:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2017 Sep 05 0842 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Analysis of the coronagraph data of yesterdays CME indicate that the
projected speed of the first ejection measures between 500 and 1000 km/s.
However, the projected speed of the second faster ejection is close to
1500km/s.
Based on the drag based model, arrival of the associated CME shock front
can be expected around UT noon September 6, when Solar wind speed is likely
to reach values of over 800km/s.
Associated geomagnetic storms are expected and could potentially reach
major to severe levels.
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From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Subject: CME arrival alert
Date: September 5, 2017 at 4:31:06 AM EDT
To: 
Reply-To: 

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2017-09-06T12:00:00
time_uncertainty: 8
min_estimated_peak_K: 5
max_estimated_peak_K: 8
probability_of_arrival: 90

Lead Time: 38.43 hour(s)
Difference: 11.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2017-09-05T08:42Z

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